Naval treats conjecture as intellectual leverage - one good guess can eliminate vast categories of waste. Following David Deutsch, “You make a conjecture, that conjecture is subject to criticism, and then the stuff that doesn’t work is weeded out”. The pattern mirrors natural selection and marketplace dynamics: generate, test, select.
Real knowledge starts with bold guesses, not consensus. “How does knowledge get created? If you follow the critical rationalism David Deutsch philosophy, then it’s by guessing and then by testing your guesses”. Taking ownership of your conjectures beats expert authority. Direct testing beats social signaling.
Each conjecture compounds through iteration. “If you want to figure out why something happened, you take all the different reasons why it could have happened, all the different theories why it could have happened” then test them. Falsifiable predictions separate true understanding from noise.
The conjecture-criticism cycle creates asymmetric returns. Most fail. Survivors become principles that guide judgment. This is why skin in the game beats formal education: real-world feedback kills bad theories faster than academic consensus.
Entrepreneurial wealth starts with market conjectures. Your unique insights become testable hypotheses about customer needs. Programming is making conjectures about how systems should work. Mathematical proofs begin with conjectures. Strategic thinking involves conjectures about others’ moves.
Naval teaches this pattern to his children. When they ask questions, he responds: “How would we figure out if that’s true?” This builds intellectual freedom through conjecture formation, not conventional wisdom consumption. Owning your thinking process creates the foundation for true happiness.