Naval despises lotteries. He calls them “attacks on people who can’t do math”. This reveals his deeper belief: good judgment requires mathematical thinking, not wishful thinking.
He extends this thinking to all get-rich-quick schemes. “Your get-rich-quick schemes are just other people getting rich off of you. There are no shortcuts”. The lottery seller gets rich; the player goes broke. This violates Naval’s rule about aligned incentives.
Naval uses lottery as metaphor for bad advice that spreads through social media. When successful people share their stories, they give you “their winning lottery ticket numbers”. These are specific circumstances that worked once, for one person. They won’t work for you.
“Most advice is people giving you their winning lottery ticket numbers”
This is why Naval teaches timeless principles, not tactics. Principles compound in value across time and context. Lottery numbers only work once.
The lottery mentality enslaves you. It blocks true freedom by feeding the endless desire for shortcuts. People want random luck instead of patient capital building. They want instant gratification instead of disciplined iteration. They gamble instead of using first-principles thinking.
Lottery thinking destroys accountability. Instead of taking responsibility for building systematic leverage, players blame bad luck. This damages their reputation as serious people.
Even in investing, Naval rejects lottery thinking. He doesn’t bet everything on one trade. He uses the Kelly criterion from game theory: “Don’t risk everything. Don’t bet everything on one big gamble”. Mathematical discipline beats hope.