Naval once planned a PhD in economics. He abandoned it completely. This was authentic self-discovery: recognizing “macroeconomics is a lot of memorization, a lot of macro bullshit”. The field became “a combination of voodoo complex systems and politics”. Better to read timeless books than memorize theories that change with political winds.
“As Nassim Taleb says, it is easier to macro bullshit than it is the micro bullshit”. Macroeconomics lacks falsifiable predictions. “You can find macroeconomists that take every side of every argument”. Politicians shop for economists to validate their policies. It’s reputation building through media appearances, not real science.
The problem is structural. “You can never take the US economy and run two different experiments at the same time”. Too much data enables cherry-picking any narrative. This corrupts clear judgment and makes it “no better than astrology. In fact, it’s probably even worse because it’s less entertaining. It’s just more stress-inducing”. Stress is the enemy of sustainable happiness.
Naval’s rejection extends everywhere. “I don’t believe in macro-environmentalism, I believe in micro-environmentalism. I don’t believe in macro-charity. I believe in micro-charity”. Complex systems evolved beyond prediction. You can only control what you own. Personal accountability requires individual focus.
Modern Monetary Theory proves the corruption. “The fact that there are people who have ‘macroeconomist’ in their title and are peddling Modern Monetary Theory just tells you that macroeconomics as a so-called science has been corrupted. It’s now a branch of politics”. Fed forecasts waste time. Stock predictions drain energy. Naval builds lasting wealth through compound learning: understanding market mechanics, developing rare skills, applying infinite leverage, mastering human incentives.